On 26 June 2024, the Ukraine Foundation and the Professional Government Association of Ukraine hosted an Expresso Speaker Series session featuring Dr. Mariya Heletiy, the Foundation’s Non-Resident Senior Fellow for Peace Processes and Conflict Resolution. In her presentation, “Lessons Learned from the Balkans and Nagorno-Karabakh”, Dr. Heletiy drew on her recent publications in Ukraine Analytica and Oxford University’s St. Antony’s International Review to shed light on the dilemmas and opportunities facing Ukraine’s future peace arrangements.
Her talk examined how international mediators, power-sharing agreements, and external security guarantees shaped the fragile peace processes in the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus. She emphasized that while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Nagorno-Karabakh each followed unique trajectories, they offer valuable cautionary lessons for Ukraine. Chief among them: peace agreements that are externally imposed without strong domestic buy-in often risk entrenching divisions rather than resolving them.
Dr. Heletiy also highlighted the dangers of “frozen conflicts,” where unresolved disputes can be manipulated by external actors to perpetuate instability. Drawing comparisons to Russia’s attempts to impose its own terms on Ukraine, she argued that sustainable peace will require not only military deterrence but also inclusive dialogue, international solidarity, and institutions capable of managing diversity. At the same time, she underscored that Ukraine must avoid models that weaken sovereignty or reward aggression, insisting instead on a framework rooted in justice, accountability, and the will of the Ukrainian people.
The session sparked a vibrant discussion with participants, many of whom were keen to explore how Ukraine can translate these historical lessons into actionable strategies for a just and lasting peace.
