Princeton University & Modern War Institute At West Point: Dr. Mariya Heletiy Publishes “The Balkans Model and Conditions for Peace in Ukraine” In the Irregular Warfare Initiative

We are proud to share the latest contribution from Dr. Mariya Heletyi, whose new article has been published by the Irregular Warfare Initiative, a joint project of Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict and the Modern War Institute at West Point.

In “The Balkans Model and Conditions for Peace in Ukraine,” Dr. Heletiy draws on the experience of the Balkan conflicts to analyze the irregular warfare nature of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what it means for peace-building. Her analysis offers a sobering but necessary perspective: that peace in Ukraine cannot be built on traditional negotiations alone.

Using the backdrop of Russia’s repeated violations of ceasefire agreements -most recently its broken “Easter truce”- Dr. Heletiy argues that today’s hybrid conflicts require more than diplomatic handshakes. The war in Ukraine spans far beyond the battlefield, touching diplomatic, informational, economic, humanitarian, and military fronts. As she points out, ceasefires in irregular conflicts often serve less as a path to peace and more as a pause for regrouping and rearming.

Drawing lessons from the Balkans, Dr. Heletiy proposes that irregular warfare tools -such as economic pressure, information campaigns, and unconventional tactics- must be part of any comprehensive strategy for sustainable peace. Her article warns against the false comfort of conventional approaches that do not account for the ideological drivers, asymmetries, and non-state actors that continue to shape today’s conflicts.

We encourage everyone interested in peace and security in Ukraine and beyond to read Dr. Heletiy’s full piece, which brings deep insight and strategic clarity to one of the most pressing issues of our time.