Washington: How Could the War in Ukraine End? Our New Senior Fellow Professor Edward Salo Explores Its Strategic Implications for the Global Balance of Power

In a recent analysis published in The National Interest, Ukraine Foundation’s Senior Fellow Professor Edward Salo examines one of the most pressing geopolitical questions of our time: how the war between Ukraine and Russia might ultimately end—and what that outcome could mean for the global balance of power.

Rather than focusing solely on military developments on the battlefield, Professor Salo places the conflict within a broader strategic framework. Wars of this scale, he argues, rarely conclude without reshaping international politics. The trajectory of the conflict, and the way it eventually ends, may influence not only the security of Eastern Europe but also the structure of the international system itself.

The Risk of a Prolonged Stalemate

A central possibility explored in Professor Salo’s analysis is the emergence of a prolonged stalemate. Despite intense fighting and significant losses on both sides, neither Ukraine nor Russia may achieve a decisive military breakthrough capable of bringing the conflict to a clear conclusion. Instead, the war could evolve into a grinding confrontation in which front lines stabilize while political and economic pressures accumulate.

Such an outcome would have far-reaching consequences. Sustaining a long war requires continuous political support, military resources, and economic resilience. While Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary determination in defending its sovereignty, its ability to sustain military operations depends heavily on continued assistance from Western partners.

Over time, however, governments in Western democracies may face growing domestic pressures. Elections, shifting political priorities, and public fatigue with prolonged conflict could gradually weaken the level of support provided to Ukraine. If political consensus in Western capitals erodes, the scale and consistency of military and financial assistance could decline, potentially altering the strategic balance of the conflict.

Professor Salo notes that this dynamic is not unusual in extended wars. Democracies must constantly reconcile foreign policy commitments with domestic political realities, and prolonged conflicts often test the durability of that balance.

China’s Potential Diplomatic Role

Within this context, Professor Salo highlights the possibility that China could seek to expand its global influence by positioning itself as a diplomatic mediator in the conflict.

Rather than participating militarily, China could leverage diplomacy to facilitate negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow if the war reaches a point where both sides are seeking a way to end hostilities. By hosting or sponsoring peace talks, Beijing could present itself as a responsible global power capable of shaping major international outcomes.

Such a diplomatic role would carry important symbolic and strategic benefits. Acting as a broker of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could enhance China’s international standing and demonstrate its capacity to influence the resolution of one of the most consequential conflicts of the twenty-first century.

At the same time, China’s involvement would reflect broader geopolitical ambitions. By engaging in conflict mediation, Beijing could strengthen its narrative that global leadership is becoming more distributed and that international diplomacy should not be dominated exclusively by Western institutions or alliances.

Toward a More Multipolar World

Salo suggests that the long-term outcome of the war could accelerate the emergence of a more multipolar international system. If Western unity weakens over time while China expands its diplomatic influence, the global balance of power could gradually shift away from the post–Cold War model of Western predominance.

In this scenario, China’s role in facilitating or shaping a negotiated settlement could symbolize the arrival of a more complex geopolitical environment in which several major powers exert influence over international affairs. The conflict in Ukraine would thus become not only a regional struggle but also a turning point in the evolution of global power structures.

For Russia, the consequences of the war are also likely to be profound. Years of intense combat and international sanctions have already placed heavy pressure on its economy and military capabilities. Regardless of how the war ends, Russia may emerge from the conflict weakened, facing the challenge of rebuilding its forces and redefining its position in the international system.

Implications for Ukraine and the International Order

For Ukraine, the stakes remain existential. Any negotiated settlement must ensure that the country’s sovereignty and long-term security are preserved. A cease-fire that merely freezes the conflict without addressing underlying security concerns could leave Ukraine vulnerable to renewed aggression in the future.

More broadly, the outcome of the war will influence the credibility of international norms regarding territorial integrity and the prohibition of aggressive war. The way the conflict concludes will send signals to other states about the effectiveness of collective responses to violations of sovereignty.

A Conflict with Global Consequences

Professor Salo’s analysis underscores that the war in Ukraine cannot be understood solely through the lens of regional security. Its outcome will shape the broader geopolitical landscape for years to come.

Whether the conflict ends through military developments on the battlefield or through diplomatic negotiations, the consequences will extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders. The war is already redefining alliances, testing the resilience of democratic support for long-term security commitments, and opening new avenues for emerging powers to influence international diplomacy.

As Ukraine continues its struggle to defend its independence, the strategic decisions made by governments around the world will play a crucial role in determining not only how the war ends, but also what kind of international order emerges in its aftermath.