Ambassador Pierre Andrieu on China, Russia, and the Future of Eurasian Power Politics

In a wide-ranging interview recently published in Le Monde des Cartes, Ambassador Pierre Andrieu — Senior Fellow on China-Russia Relations at the Asia Society, former French ambassador, and professor of international relations at Sciences Po, Inalco, ISIT, ESCP, and several foreign universities — offers a precise, historically informed, and sobering assessment of the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing. Drawing on decades of diplomatic and academic experience, and on research developed in his 2023 book Géopolitique des relations russo-chinoises, Andrieu outlines a partnership that is far from equal, shaped by deep strategic ambivalence, divergent imperial legacies, and the shockwaves of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Ambassador Andrieu stresses that despite the rhetoric of a “limitless friendship,” Russia today has become China’s junior partner, if not its outright vassal. The dynamic has inverted dramatically since the 1950s, when Mao’s China was economically dependent on the Soviet Union and chafing under its authority. Today, China’s economic weight — with a GDP ten times larger than Russia’s — determines the parameters of the relationship. Beijing imports vast quantities of Russian energy and raw materials while exporting high-value industrial goods to a Russia isolated by Western sanctions. Trade between the two countries has surged to USD 245 billion, underscoring the Kremlin’s reliance on China to offset the economic consequences of its invasion of Ukraine.

Yet this partnership remains constrained by mistrust and historical memory. Beijing has not forgotten the immense territories seized by Tsarist Russia in the nineteenth century, nor does it fully align with Moscow’s revisionist aggression. Andrieu highlights that while both governments reject “Western hegemony,” their ambitions differ in nature and scale. China seeks to reshape multilateralism to secure its centrality; Russia seeks to overturn the table outright. Where Beijing pursues influence through economic power, global trade networks, and military modernization — notably to prepare for a future attempt to take Taiwan — Moscow is driven by a nostalgic and destabilizing imperial impulse. Andrieu reminds readers that for President Putin, the restoration of Russian greatness is inseparable from subjugating Ukraine: a conviction famously captured by Zbigniew Brzezinski’s dictum that “Russia without Ukraine is not an empire.”

Ambassador Andrieu underscores that China’s posture on the war remains one of “pro-Russian neutrality” — supporting Moscow sufficiently to prevent regime collapse, yet refusing to recognize the illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory. Beijing benefits strategically from the war: it absorbs Western focus in Europe, gains military and sanctions-evasion insights, and sees Russia grow more economically dependent. Meanwhile, U.S. policy oscillations — particularly under Donald Trump — have reinforced Beijing’s confidence and blurred Washington’s commitments both to Ukraine and Taiwan.

The interview also examines China’s rise as a technological and economic superpower, propelled not by ideology but by a sustained strategy of projecting economic influence abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative and its expanding digital presence. In contrast to Russia’s destabilizing adventurism, China seeks to “lock down” its environment: pushing expansive claims in the South China Sea, while maintaining stability in sensitive regions such as Central Asia, where it invests heavily in infrastructure and security cooperation.

Turning to Russia’s internal trajectory, Andrieu offers a stark assessment: the Kremlin remains trapped in an imperial mindset that stretches back to the Tsarist era and that continued, in different forms, under Soviet rule. Russia’s war against Ukraine — launched with the expectation of a swift victory — has instead revealed severe military limitations and an economy under growing strain. Its ambitions in the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are faltering even as it pursues hybrid provocations against NATO states. Ambassador Andrieu notes that drone incursions, territorial overflights, and other grey-zone activities remain below the threshold of open conflict but signal a deliberate campaign to test the cohesion and resolve of the Alliance at a moment of political divergence among its leaders.

Ultimately, Ambassador Andrieu concludes that Russia shows no genuine interest in negotiating a ceasefire. Its objectives remain unchanged: the capitulation of Ukraine and the erasure of its sovereignty. In this context, he warns, Europe and its partners must grasp the full implications of an emboldened China, a destabilizing Russia, and a Eurasian landscape increasingly shaped by asymmetric partnerships and imperial revisionism.

For Ukraine and for Europe, Andrieu’s analysis is a reminder that the future of Eurasian security will be determined not only on the battlefield, but also across the shifting tectonics of Sino-Russian relations, global economic influence, and the resilience of the international order itself.