Our Senior Fellow, Irregular Warfare and Human Dynamics of Conflict, Dr. Nicholas Krohley

We are proud to share the latest contribution from Dr. Mariya Heletyi, whose new article has been published by the Irregular Warfare Initiative, a joint project of Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict and the Modern War Institute at West Point.

In “The Balkans Model and Conditions for Peace in Ukraine,” Dr. Heletiy draws on the experience of the Balkan conflicts to analyze the irregular warfare nature of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what it means for peace-building. Her analysis offers a sobering but necessary perspective: that peace in Ukraine cannot be built on traditional negotiations alone.

Using the backdrop of Russia’s repeated violations of ceasefire agreements -most recently its broken “Easter truce”- Dr. Heletiy argues that today’s hybrid conflicts require more than diplomatic handshakes. The war in Ukraine spans far beyond the battlefield, touching diplomatic, informational, economic, humanitarian, and military fronts. As she points out, ceasefires in irregular conflicts often serve less as a path to peace and more as a pause for regrouping and rearming.

Drawing lessons from the Balkans, Dr. Heletiy proposes that irregular warfare tools -such as economic pressure, information campaigns, and unconventional tactics- must be part of any comprehensive strategy for sustainable peace. Her article warns against the false comfort of conventional approaches that do not account for the ideological drivers, asymmetries, and non-state actors that continue to shape today’s conflicts.

We encourage everyone interested in peace and security in Ukraine and beyond to read Dr. Heletiy’s full piece, which brings deep insight and strategic clarity to one of the most pressing issues of our time.

Milan: Natalie Shkarban At Ukraine Recovery Conference’s Milan Preparatory Business Forum

On 5 March 2025, Milan hosted the pivotal “On the Road to URC 2025” business forum, marking a significant milestone in the lead-up to the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) scheduled for 10–11 July in Rome. This preparatory event convened over 550 representatives from 23 countries, including government officials, international financial institutions, and private sector leaders, to strategize Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and economic revitalization.

Keynote speakers included Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal (via video message), First Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, and Lombardy Region President Attilio Fontana. Their addresses underscored the urgency of mobilizing international investment and fostering public-private partnerships to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure, energy systems, and industrial base.

Discussions at the forum focused on several strategic areas:
• Investment and Financing: Exploring mechanisms to attract foreign capital, including risk insurance and government incentives.
• Energy Resilience and Green Transition: Promoting sustainable energy solutions and the development of a green energy system in Ukraine.
• Industrial Production and SMEs: Enhancing local manufacturing capabilities and integrating Ukrainian small and medium-sized enterprises into global supply chains.
• Infrastructure and Housing: Reconstructing critical infrastructure and providing housing solutions for internally displaced persons.

The event also highlighted collaborative initiatives such as the partnership between Lombardy and Zaporizhzhia regions and the presentation of a master plan for Mykolaiv’s recovery.

This Milan forum set the stage for the upcoming URC 2025 in Rome, which aims to consolidate international support and secure tangible commitments for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.

Renowned visual artist Alex Luna continues his powerful exploration of the Somnia Disaster with a European tour, shedding light on the haunting legacy of this enigmatic event. Following its impactful debut, the exhibition makes its second stop in Sofia, Bulgaria, where it has already garnered significant media attention. Through a compelling blend of visual storytelling and immersive installations, Luna invites viewers across Europe to confront the surreal and often unsettling dimensions of memory, loss, and collective trauma.

Somnia Disaster Featured in

The accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima are the focus of the documentary exhibition “The Catastrophe of Dreams”, which was opened at the National Assembly. The exhibition includes nearly 40 photographs by Alexander Tishchenko (Alex Luna) and Shigeru Yoshida, which touch on the psychological and aesthetic consequences of two of the largest nuclear accidents in the world. The event was organized on the initiative of MP Lyuben Dilov Jr. and the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Defense and the Bulgaria-Ukraine Friendship Group Hristo Gadzhev.

The exhibition is important for all Bulgarians because our country was one of the countries most affected by the Chernobyl accident, said Lyuben Dilov Jr. According to him, this is also the first artistic bridge of its kind  connecting Chernobyl and Fukushima. Lyuben Dilov Jr. pointed out that after the horrific incidents, Japan has created another engineering miracle with the construction of a 400-kilometer wall with an average height of 15 meters to protect the coast, and the Ukrainian people have turned Pripyat and the Chernobyl region into one of the most exotic places in Europe. “The catastrophe of dreams” gives birth to new dreams, not despair, he added. Lyuben Dilov Jr. also recalled the words of Shigeru Yoshida, who says that only the one who knows the pain can cure it and protect others from it.

For his part, one of the authors of the documentary photographs, Alexander Tishchenko (Alex Luna), noted that in these days when the world is facing a nuclear war, there is no higher value than human life, because it defeats any catastrophe. The opening of the exhibition was also attended by MPs, public figures, representatives of the diplomatic corps and journalists.

У Болгарії відкрилася фотовиставка «Somnia Disaster»

У Народних Зборах Республіки Болгарія 18 червня відбулася церемонія відкриття фотовиставки «Somnia disaster» – спільного артпроєкту українських та японських митців, присвяченого ядерним трагедіям у Чорнобилі, Фукусімі, а також Хіросімі та Нагасакі.

Як передає Укрінформ, про це у Фейсбуці повідомило посольство України в Болгарії.

Експозиція унікальним чином об’єднала творчу команду під керівництвом Олександра Тищенка (Alex Luna) та японського фотографа Шіґеру Йошіди. Їхні роботи покликані привернути увагу міжнародної спільноти до проблеми протидії ядерним загрозам та спонукати до посилення міжнародної підтримки України.

Виставку вдалося реалізувати за підтримки голови Групи дружби “Болгарія – Україна” болгарського парламенту Христо Гаджева та депутата Любена Ділова.

Читайте також: Болгарія продовжила до березня програму підтримки українських біженців

Під час церемонії відкриття болгарські депутати та гості заходу хвилиною мовчання вшанували пам’ять жертв російського ракетного обстрілу України, що стався 17 червня. Внаслідок цього терористичного акту загинуло 28 людей, а понад 130 отримали поранення.

Нагадаємо, 12 червня на площі перед Народним театром ім. Івана Вазова у Софії відкрилася цифрова фотовиставка «Україна: любов + війна» – арт-документальний проєкт, який уперше представлено у Болгарії.

Somnia Disaster Featured In The Bulgarian Media